By strongly backing Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan has chosen certainty, stability, giving him a definite edge over Imran Khan's Naya Pakistan
Standing at the front door of his house in Karachi on the eve of Pakistan's elections, Mohsin looked the typical south Asian who had just been informed that his daughter has eloped. Liberal, upwardly mobile and a scribe who champions the cause of minorities and women, Mohsin was positively shaken by the drubbing Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) got at the hustings. His shock is understandable. While for most Pakistanis, it was a historic chance to exercise their democratic franchise, for Mohsin it was the unravelling of five years of progressive policies. He makes light of the image of the PPP government tarnished by corruption and non-performance. “Jeene nahi dete the, magar peene to dete the,” he says about his favourite political party (they at least allowed us a drink). Although airy fairy, the remark sums up the response of those who got drubbed in the recently-concluded Pakistan elections.
Mohsin's cynicism notwithstanding, the general elections in Pakistan was something to remember. The fact that it was the first back-to-back elections in Pakistan that saw the completion of the term of a democratically elected government, made it a historic occasion.
But this was not all. Positive participation of youths, the escalation in voting percentages, the unprecedented security arrangements to take on unprecedented security threats, the decimation of political dynasties and the crack in the traditional “biradari (caste) system”, have all combined to make these elections memorable.
Let's look at the results first. As the story goes for print, the results of 267 National Assembly (NA) constituencies out of 272 that were up for grabs was announced. Repolling was ordered in one constituency in Karachi following complaints of massive rigging, where as elections in four constituencies were postponed due to the death of contestants and other reasons.
Of the announced results, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) emerged as the single largest party by winning as many as 126 seats. The figure is a little short of the simple majority mark but still formidable in a country where regional aspirations often lead to hung verdicts.
According to the provisions laid out by the Constitution of Pakistan, as many as 70 seats are awarded to women and minority candidates through a complex process. This process is similar to the winner-takes-all system which prevails in some states of the US. What it means is that Nawaz's PML (N) will take close to 25 women seats from Punjab and a couple of seats from elsewhere. Minority seats too are contested. PML (N) can expect to bag a couple here too. It will move the party closer to the halfway mark. It is certain to get the support of several independents who won the elections following denial of ticket by PML (N). In short, it will easily form the government.
Although the lion's share of PML (N) seats came from its stronghold and Pakistan's most populated province, Punjab, the party did register its presence in other provinces as well. Its ally PML (F) bagged five seats in Sindh and will help boost PML (N) numbers.
The party also won four National Assembly seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), two from Federal Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and a lone seat from Islamabad region while scoring a zilch in Balochistan.
The ruling disposition, PPP, suffered one of the worst drubbings in its political history under the leadership of President Asif Ali Zardari. The party managed to hold on to its stronghold Sindh which contributes 30 out of the 31 seats it won nationally. The self claimed “only truly national party of Pakistan” managed to win just one seat in Punjab and was wiped out in Balochistan, KPK, FATA and the Islamabad region.
Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) did post a remarkable figure, hypes around it apart. It won 29 National Assembly seats and will probably reach the figure of 30 when polls in the other four constituencies take place. PTI nearly swept the province of KPK by bagging 17 out of the 35 seats that went to polls. It also won eight seats in Punjab, two in FATA and lone seats from Sindh and Islamabad region respectively. If one goes strictly by the spread of seats, PTI's emergence as a truly national party remains the biggest story of these Pakistan elections.
Of the Provincial Assembly (PA) seats, PML (N) is set to win a majority in Punjab even after being provided solid competition by PTI in the urban seats. It is also set to form a coalition government in Balochistan, where it secured nine seats, by going into a coalition with Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and the Baloch nationalist, National Party (NP), who have a combined figure of 26 of the 51 general seats in the PA.
The PkMAP that represent the interests of Pakhtuns in Balochistan, emerged as the largest party in the PA having clinched 10 seats, whereas NP bagged eight. After the allotment of the reserved seats for women and religious minorities, the combined strength of the three parties will increase to 36 in a house of 65 and they will be able to comfortably form a government. Some other independents are also ready to join PML (N)'s victory party. Four names circulating in the provincial capital for the post of chief minister include former Senate deputy chairman Mir Mohammad Jamali, Sardar Sanaullah Zehri, Nawabzada Jangez Khan Marri of the PML-N and Nawab Ayaz Khan Jogezai of the PkMAP.
Sindh is a different ball-game altogether where PPP is placed comfortably to form a government of its own and may decide to bring in Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to share power who, as expected, swept the city of Karachi where they bagged 18 NA and 36 PA seats amidst accusation of vote rigging.
In KPK, efforts are on by PTI who emerged as the single largest party with 35 out of 99 seats to form a coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), which won seven PA seats. There are reports that Maulana Fazlur Rehman was in contact with both JI and PML (N) leaders to form a government, following his rivalry with Imran Khan.
But JI sources told TSI that it is most likely to be part of PTI-formed government. “JI has nothing against Maulana Fazlur Rehman but it would be unfair on PTI if they are not allowed to form a government after winning majority of the seats in KPK,” said the source.
Although the verdict for PML (N) is thumping, there are some evident - and some not so evident - trends that this election has thrown up. The first is the clear mandate for stability and familiarity. Imran Khan's major election plank was “Naya Pakistan”, never mind what it meant. Their idea was to completely revolutionize the way people perceive and vote in elections in Pakistan. Imran did manage to strike a chord with the urban voter who has been at the receiving end of the ever-present and omnipresent security threats, economic stagnation, unemployment and chronic energy crisis.
The imagination of this generation-apathetic at best and apolitical at worst-was fired by Imran Khan who singularly energized them to claim their rights which they did in large numbers. And this hike in voting was evident all over Pakistan. The average voting percentage confined to their 30s and 40s in the last five elections, suddenly jumped to above 50 percent in all the provinces except Balochistan, because of obvious reasons.
Media and civil society also did their bit for democracy. Some TV channels, notably Geo, and almost all the major civil society groups ran a spirited campaign asking people to come out and vote. Street performances, TV ads, monikers, every weapon in the kitty was used to bring the voters out. But what sunk Imran Khan was the fact that not all youngsters who came out to vote, voted for him. In a democracy, it is an established fact.
Standing at the front door of his house in Karachi on the eve of Pakistan's elections, Mohsin looked the typical south Asian who had just been informed that his daughter has eloped. Liberal, upwardly mobile and a scribe who champions the cause of minorities and women, Mohsin was positively shaken by the drubbing Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) got at the hustings. His shock is understandable. While for most Pakistanis, it was a historic chance to exercise their democratic franchise, for Mohsin it was the unravelling of five years of progressive policies. He makes light of the image of the PPP government tarnished by corruption and non-performance. “Jeene nahi dete the, magar peene to dete the,” he says about his favourite political party (they at least allowed us a drink). Although airy fairy, the remark sums up the response of those who got drubbed in the recently-concluded Pakistan elections.
Mohsin's cynicism notwithstanding, the general elections in Pakistan was something to remember. The fact that it was the first back-to-back elections in Pakistan that saw the completion of the term of a democratically elected government, made it a historic occasion.
But this was not all. Positive participation of youths, the escalation in voting percentages, the unprecedented security arrangements to take on unprecedented security threats, the decimation of political dynasties and the crack in the traditional “biradari (caste) system”, have all combined to make these elections memorable.
Let's look at the results first. As the story goes for print, the results of 267 National Assembly (NA) constituencies out of 272 that were up for grabs was announced. Repolling was ordered in one constituency in Karachi following complaints of massive rigging, where as elections in four constituencies were postponed due to the death of contestants and other reasons.
Of the announced results, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) emerged as the single largest party by winning as many as 126 seats. The figure is a little short of the simple majority mark but still formidable in a country where regional aspirations often lead to hung verdicts.
According to the provisions laid out by the Constitution of Pakistan, as many as 70 seats are awarded to women and minority candidates through a complex process. This process is similar to the winner-takes-all system which prevails in some states of the US. What it means is that Nawaz's PML (N) will take close to 25 women seats from Punjab and a couple of seats from elsewhere. Minority seats too are contested. PML (N) can expect to bag a couple here too. It will move the party closer to the halfway mark. It is certain to get the support of several independents who won the elections following denial of ticket by PML (N). In short, it will easily form the government.
Although the lion's share of PML (N) seats came from its stronghold and Pakistan's most populated province, Punjab, the party did register its presence in other provinces as well. Its ally PML (F) bagged five seats in Sindh and will help boost PML (N) numbers.
The party also won four National Assembly seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), two from Federal Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and a lone seat from Islamabad region while scoring a zilch in Balochistan.
The ruling disposition, PPP, suffered one of the worst drubbings in its political history under the leadership of President Asif Ali Zardari. The party managed to hold on to its stronghold Sindh which contributes 30 out of the 31 seats it won nationally. The self claimed “only truly national party of Pakistan” managed to win just one seat in Punjab and was wiped out in Balochistan, KPK, FATA and the Islamabad region.
Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) did post a remarkable figure, hypes around it apart. It won 29 National Assembly seats and will probably reach the figure of 30 when polls in the other four constituencies take place. PTI nearly swept the province of KPK by bagging 17 out of the 35 seats that went to polls. It also won eight seats in Punjab, two in FATA and lone seats from Sindh and Islamabad region respectively. If one goes strictly by the spread of seats, PTI's emergence as a truly national party remains the biggest story of these Pakistan elections.
Of the Provincial Assembly (PA) seats, PML (N) is set to win a majority in Punjab even after being provided solid competition by PTI in the urban seats. It is also set to form a coalition government in Balochistan, where it secured nine seats, by going into a coalition with Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and the Baloch nationalist, National Party (NP), who have a combined figure of 26 of the 51 general seats in the PA.
The PkMAP that represent the interests of Pakhtuns in Balochistan, emerged as the largest party in the PA having clinched 10 seats, whereas NP bagged eight. After the allotment of the reserved seats for women and religious minorities, the combined strength of the three parties will increase to 36 in a house of 65 and they will be able to comfortably form a government. Some other independents are also ready to join PML (N)'s victory party. Four names circulating in the provincial capital for the post of chief minister include former Senate deputy chairman Mir Mohammad Jamali, Sardar Sanaullah Zehri, Nawabzada Jangez Khan Marri of the PML-N and Nawab Ayaz Khan Jogezai of the PkMAP.
Sindh is a different ball-game altogether where PPP is placed comfortably to form a government of its own and may decide to bring in Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to share power who, as expected, swept the city of Karachi where they bagged 18 NA and 36 PA seats amidst accusation of vote rigging.
In KPK, efforts are on by PTI who emerged as the single largest party with 35 out of 99 seats to form a coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), which won seven PA seats. There are reports that Maulana Fazlur Rehman was in contact with both JI and PML (N) leaders to form a government, following his rivalry with Imran Khan.
But JI sources told TSI that it is most likely to be part of PTI-formed government. “JI has nothing against Maulana Fazlur Rehman but it would be unfair on PTI if they are not allowed to form a government after winning majority of the seats in KPK,” said the source.
Although the verdict for PML (N) is thumping, there are some evident - and some not so evident - trends that this election has thrown up. The first is the clear mandate for stability and familiarity. Imran Khan's major election plank was “Naya Pakistan”, never mind what it meant. Their idea was to completely revolutionize the way people perceive and vote in elections in Pakistan. Imran did manage to strike a chord with the urban voter who has been at the receiving end of the ever-present and omnipresent security threats, economic stagnation, unemployment and chronic energy crisis.
The imagination of this generation-apathetic at best and apolitical at worst-was fired by Imran Khan who singularly energized them to claim their rights which they did in large numbers. And this hike in voting was evident all over Pakistan. The average voting percentage confined to their 30s and 40s in the last five elections, suddenly jumped to above 50 percent in all the provinces except Balochistan, because of obvious reasons.
Media and civil society also did their bit for democracy. Some TV channels, notably Geo, and almost all the major civil society groups ran a spirited campaign asking people to come out and vote. Street performances, TV ads, monikers, every weapon in the kitty was used to bring the voters out. But what sunk Imran Khan was the fact that not all youngsters who came out to vote, voted for him. In a democracy, it is an established fact.
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